HYPOTHESIS ALERT!!
A couple days ago AJ Cassavell from MLB.com dropped an article talking about how Eric Hosmer sees similarities between his new Padres and his old Royals.
That article inspired this blog, where I will take a closer look to see how the 2015 World Series Champs look vs our TBD 2020 Padres*
*UNREALISTIC, but for the 2020 Padres, I didn't grab any FA's from now until then, all home grown talent, except for one trade at the deadline during the 2020 season*
2015 Royals
KC won the World Series after losing the 2014 WS in 7 games to the orange team up north.
Their roster: (Position - Name - Age) [sorry for length, for phone users]
C - Salvador Perez - 25
1B - Eric Hosmer - 25
2B - Omar Infante - 33
3B - Mike Moustakas - 26
SS - Alcides Escobar - 28
LF - Alex Gordon - 31
CF - Lorenzo Cain - 29
RF - Alex Rios - 34
DH - Kendry Morales - 32
UT - Ben Zobrist - 34
OF - Paulo Orlando - 29
OF - Jarrod Dyson - 30
SP - Edison Volquez - 31
SP - Yordano Ventura - 24
SP - Jeremy Guthrie - 36
SP - Danny Duffy - 26
SP - Chris Young - 36
SP - Johnny Cueto - 29* acquired in July
CP - Greg Holland - 29
RP - Kevin Herrera - 25
RP - Wade Davis - 29
RP - Ryan Madson - 34
RP - Franklin Morales - 29
Top 3 Position Players
Lorenzo Cain (7.2 WAR)
307/.361/.477 - 16 HR, 72 RBI, 101 R
Mike Moustakas (4.4)
.284/.348/.470 - 22 HR, 82 RBI, 73 R
Eric Hosmer (3.6)
.297/.363/.459 - 18 HR, 93 RBI, 98 R
Top 3 Pitchers
Wade Davis (3.4 WAR)
8-1, 0.94 ERA, 67.1 IP, 448 ERA+
Chris Young (2.6)
11-6, 3.06 ERA, 123.1 IP, 137 ERA+
Edison Volquez (2.4)
13-9, 3.55 ERA, 200.1 IP, 118 ERA+
The Royals had 10 players with at least 2.2 WAR or better (the 2017 Padres had 3 of these players). They did so with no one that I would classify as a "superstar" on the roster. Their lineup did have some depth to it, however. Gordon, Perez, and Morales all had nice slash lines while Zobrist and Dyson were two fantastic role players. Cain led the team with 28 stolen bases, while Dyson added 26, and Escobar had 17; no one else had double digits. The 2015 Royals simply played team baseball.
That rotation is nothing sexy either. After Volquez's 200.1 innings pitched, Ventura (RIP) was second with 163.1, and no one else had over 150. Looking at the AL pitching leaders for 2015, two Royals make an appearance in the top 10 in the (main?) categories: Chris Young was tied for 10th in W/L %, and Ventura was 8th in K/9. Oh, Guthrie tied at #1 giving up the most HR's.
The strength of that pitching staff was certainly the bullpen. I can still remember watching games of that postseason, and the Royals just tried to have the lead after the 6th, then came Davis-Herrera-Holland for the ball game. Reminds me of that '05 Padres pen of Linebrink-Aki-Hoffy, except a lot better. Speaking of Padres, lets hit FF because this isn't a KCR blog.
2020 Padres
The 2020 Padres are coming off a 7 game NLCS loss to the Bryce Harper led Chicago Cubs in 2019.
Their roster: (Position - Name - Age) [sorry for length, for phone users]
C - Austin Hedges - 27
1B - Eric Hosmer - 30
2B - Luis Urias - 23
3B - Fernando Tatis Jr - 21
SS - Gabriel Arias- 20
LF - Franchy Cordero - 26
CF - Manny Margot- 26
RF - Wil Myers - 29
DH - Hunter Renfroe - 28
IF - Hudson Potts - 22
OF - Jorge Ona - 23
UT - Jose Pirela - 30
SP - Dinelson Lamet- 27
SP - Adrian Morejon - 21
SP - Cal Quantrill - 25
SP - Logan Allen - 23
SP - Michael Baez - 24
SP - Mackenzie Gore - 21 / Jacob DeGrom- 29* acquired in July
CP - Brad Hand - 29
RP - Matt Strahm- 28
RP - Phil Maton - 26
RP - Kirby Yates- 32
RP - Brian Mitchell - 28
Some stuff to digest before the comparisons. Urias and Tatis Jr are now fixtures at this point, but the quick rise of Gabriel Arias has moved Fern Jr over to 3B before he and the rest of Padre Nation expected. Franchy's athleticism and talent has pushed Renfroe out of the starting lineup by 2020, but RenBro will still be a big bat off the bench and huge as a DH in interleague play and of course, in the World Series.
Four of the many young guns the Padre have currently in their top 30 prospects have been in the rotation for the whole season. While the talent explodes off the screen of your 5K TV, Preller makes a move for the rental Jacob DeGrom (UFA in 2021) at the deadline in attempt to push the Pads over the top. Mackenzie Gore joins the team during September call-ups and is a serious consideration for the 25 man postseason roster.
Comparison
The 2020 Padres are younger, faster, and much more mesmerizing than the 2015 KCR and they have a legit superstar in the making in Fernando Tatis Jr. The reliable veterans that the Royals had in their lineup (Cain, Gordon, Morales, Escobar) match up well with the Pads version (Hosmer, Myers, Margot, Hedges). Pirela and Renfroe bring the experience off of the bench like Zobrist and Dyson did in KC.
The starting pitching staffs are different, with the Pads relying on their youngsters making an impact in the rotation (adding an impact veteran SP from now until 2020 makes a lot more sense for success, but whatevs). However, the bullpens are very similar; Hand is one-of-if-not the best closer in baseball and he has the help Holland had in KC. The Padres rely on their bullpen in the postseason just like the Royals did in 2015.
Conclusion
How ridiculous is this idea? Short answer: very. But a boy can dream. If the Padres "Hot Talent Lava" turns into Major League rock, we could be looking at a team that all of us fans have been dreaming about for a long time. Even if the Padres don't make a run in 2019/2020, just review the ages of the players I included on the potential 2020 roster. The Padres could very well be the new Astros with a shitload of young players under team control for a long time.
Let's enjoy the ride, and see how the team progresses from now until then. We might be on the verge on something real special, something this city deserves.
#GoPadres
A couple days ago AJ Cassavell from MLB.com dropped an article talking about how Eric Hosmer sees similarities between his new Padres and his old Royals.
"A lot of similarities," said Hosmer, who dug deeply into the intricacies of the Padres' farm system before he signed. "It's something I went through as a young guy. I'm excited to go through it now, not being the young guy anymore and being the guy that can be there for the young guys."
That article inspired this blog, where I will take a closer look to see how the 2015 World Series Champs look vs our TBD 2020 Padres*
*UNREALISTIC, but for the 2020 Padres, I didn't grab any FA's from now until then, all home grown talent, except for one trade at the deadline during the 2020 season*
2015 Royals
KC won the World Series after losing the 2014 WS in 7 games to the orange team up north.
Their roster: (Position - Name - Age) [sorry for length, for phone users]
C - Salvador Perez - 25
1B - Eric Hosmer - 25
2B - Omar Infante - 33
3B - Mike Moustakas - 26
SS - Alcides Escobar - 28
LF - Alex Gordon - 31
CF - Lorenzo Cain - 29
RF - Alex Rios - 34
DH - Kendry Morales - 32
UT - Ben Zobrist - 34
OF - Paulo Orlando - 29
OF - Jarrod Dyson - 30
SP - Edison Volquez - 31
SP - Yordano Ventura - 24
SP - Jeremy Guthrie - 36
SP - Danny Duffy - 26
SP - Chris Young - 36
SP - Johnny Cueto - 29* acquired in July
CP - Greg Holland - 29
RP - Kevin Herrera - 25
RP - Wade Davis - 29
RP - Ryan Madson - 34
RP - Franklin Morales - 29
Top 3 Position Players
Lorenzo Cain (7.2 WAR)
307/.361/.477 - 16 HR, 72 RBI, 101 R
Mike Moustakas (4.4)
.284/.348/.470 - 22 HR, 82 RBI, 73 R
Eric Hosmer (3.6)
.297/.363/.459 - 18 HR, 93 RBI, 98 R
Top 3 Pitchers
Wade Davis (3.4 WAR)
8-1, 0.94 ERA, 67.1 IP, 448 ERA+
Chris Young (2.6)
11-6, 3.06 ERA, 123.1 IP, 137 ERA+
Edison Volquez (2.4)
13-9, 3.55 ERA, 200.1 IP, 118 ERA+
The Royals had 10 players with at least 2.2 WAR or better (the 2017 Padres had 3 of these players). They did so with no one that I would classify as a "superstar" on the roster. Their lineup did have some depth to it, however. Gordon, Perez, and Morales all had nice slash lines while Zobrist and Dyson were two fantastic role players. Cain led the team with 28 stolen bases, while Dyson added 26, and Escobar had 17; no one else had double digits. The 2015 Royals simply played team baseball.
That rotation is nothing sexy either. After Volquez's 200.1 innings pitched, Ventura (RIP) was second with 163.1, and no one else had over 150. Looking at the AL pitching leaders for 2015, two Royals make an appearance in the top 10 in the (main?) categories: Chris Young was tied for 10th in W/L %, and Ventura was 8th in K/9. Oh, Guthrie tied at #1 giving up the most HR's.
The strength of that pitching staff was certainly the bullpen. I can still remember watching games of that postseason, and the Royals just tried to have the lead after the 6th, then came Davis-Herrera-Holland for the ball game. Reminds me of that '05 Padres pen of Linebrink-Aki-Hoffy, except a lot better. Speaking of Padres, lets hit FF because this isn't a KCR blog.
2020 Padres
The 2020 Padres are coming off a 7 game NLCS loss to the Bryce Harper led Chicago Cubs in 2019.
Their roster: (Position - Name - Age) [sorry for length, for phone users]
C - Austin Hedges - 27
1B - Eric Hosmer - 30
2B - Luis Urias - 23
3B - Fernando Tatis Jr - 21
SS - Gabriel Arias- 20
LF - Franchy Cordero - 26
CF - Manny Margot- 26
RF - Wil Myers - 29
DH - Hunter Renfroe - 28
IF - Hudson Potts - 22
OF - Jorge Ona - 23
UT - Jose Pirela - 30
SP - Dinelson Lamet- 27
SP - Adrian Morejon - 21
SP - Cal Quantrill - 25
SP - Logan Allen - 23
SP - Michael Baez - 24
SP - Mackenzie Gore - 21 / Jacob DeGrom- 29* acquired in July
CP - Brad Hand - 29
RP - Matt Strahm- 28
RP - Phil Maton - 26
RP - Kirby Yates- 32
RP - Brian Mitchell - 28
Some stuff to digest before the comparisons. Urias and Tatis Jr are now fixtures at this point, but the quick rise of Gabriel Arias has moved Fern Jr over to 3B before he and the rest of Padre Nation expected. Franchy's athleticism and talent has pushed Renfroe out of the starting lineup by 2020, but RenBro will still be a big bat off the bench and huge as a DH in interleague play and of course, in the World Series.
Four of the many young guns the Padre have currently in their top 30 prospects have been in the rotation for the whole season. While the talent explodes off the screen of your 5K TV, Preller makes a move for the rental Jacob DeGrom (UFA in 2021) at the deadline in attempt to push the Pads over the top. Mackenzie Gore joins the team during September call-ups and is a serious consideration for the 25 man postseason roster.
Comparison
The 2020 Padres are younger, faster, and much more mesmerizing than the 2015 KCR and they have a legit superstar in the making in Fernando Tatis Jr. The reliable veterans that the Royals had in their lineup (Cain, Gordon, Morales, Escobar) match up well with the Pads version (Hosmer, Myers, Margot, Hedges). Pirela and Renfroe bring the experience off of the bench like Zobrist and Dyson did in KC.
The starting pitching staffs are different, with the Pads relying on their youngsters making an impact in the rotation (adding an impact veteran SP from now until 2020 makes a lot more sense for success, but whatevs). However, the bullpens are very similar; Hand is one-of-if-not the best closer in baseball and he has the help Holland had in KC. The Padres rely on their bullpen in the postseason just like the Royals did in 2015.
Conclusion
How ridiculous is this idea? Short answer: very. But a boy can dream. If the Padres "Hot Talent Lava" turns into Major League rock, we could be looking at a team that all of us fans have been dreaming about for a long time. Even if the Padres don't make a run in 2019/2020, just review the ages of the players I included on the potential 2020 roster. The Padres could very well be the new Astros with a shitload of young players under team control for a long time.
Let's enjoy the ride, and see how the team progresses from now until then. We might be on the verge on something real special, something this city deserves.
#GoPadres
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