The Case for Manny Machado

By Doug Peters

Go ahead and laugh you sons of bitches. All I hear whenever the 2019 MLB free agents are discussed is how the Padres have absolutely no shot at any of the top guys. It’s this thinking that has fueled a lot of the pro-Hosmer arguments. But we Padres fans need to realize that this is not the Padres ownership of old. So let’s go down the rabbit hole for a minute and see what could happen if the Padres miss out on Hosmer and go big in 2019.

When looking at the 2019 free agent list there are two names that stand out like lightning rods:

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

These are two of the top young players in the game and both will be keystones on someone’s playoff rosters for years to come. I don’t think there is much debate that Harper is the more talented of the two and will command the larger contract. I’m here to tell you that the Padres will not be getting Bryce Harper. Bold take, I know. But what about Machado…

The Contract

Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first. Machado is going to command a HUGE contract. I don’t wanna sit here and try to figure out exactly what that number will be, but it’s safe to say you’re looking at something in the range of 10+ years at $26-$30M per year. That is a massive contract and would absolutely shatter the previous Padres contract record. But don’t sit there and tell me that it isn’t doable. 

Signing Machado to a contract that size would effectively prevent the team from making any more impact signings over the next 3-4 years. But is that really much of an issue? How many of the current players are realistically going to be part of the playoff pushes in 2020 and beyond and will need to be resigned?

Guys that really are going to matter like Margot are under team control until 2022. Plus all these prospects who are supposed to be the catalyst for a Padres dynasty are even further away from a payday.

Don’t forget the fact that the Padres are currently paying out over $20 million dollars to players no longer on the team (Shields, Gyorko, and Olivera). All that dead money will free up over the next couple years. Also, Wil Myers’s contract will expire in 2022 freeing up $20 million per year to use towards resigning Margot, or to go after another FA.

This team is set up to be competitive in the coming years while also remaining one of the lower payroll teams in baseball. My point is, signing Machado will not handicap the Padres the way other teams have been when giving out mega contracts.

The Fit

Now let’s look at this potential signing purely on how it would fit with the team and their plans. Currently, good ol’ Chase Headley is handling the hot corning. Thankfully he is on a 1 year deal.

Guys like Spangenberg and Asuaje can fill in on a short team basis but the current roster doesn’t have any other full time candidates to take over in 2019, so let’s look at the minors.   

With the most recent organizational prospect rankings from various publications coming out over the past few weeks, it gave a look at who we may be seeing in Petco before too long. One thing you may notice is the glaring lack of a third base prospect above Single A. I’m not prepared to put all my eggs in the Hudson Potts basket, so that brings us to Machado….

I’ve heard 2019, 2020, and 2021 all thrown out as the year that the Padres contention window will open. Make no mistake, by signing Machado you are pushing that window forward by a year. You are starting the clock on what should be a playoff contending team for the entire life of Machado’s 10+ year deal.

Take a look at this 2019 opening day roster and imagine for a minute what could be over the next decade:

C   – Hedges (Allen/Campusano)
1B – Myers
2B – Urias 
SS – Tatis Jr*
3B – Machado*
CF – Margot
LF/Rf – Renfroe, Franchy, Pirela, Ona, etc.

*Interchangeable

Combine that lineup with a rotation that everyone already expects to be great 4-5 years from now and you have a very potent playoff team.

The Manny

Like most start athletes, Machado wants two things: Get paid and compete for a Championship.
Assuming the Padres would be willing to pony up the dough to sign him, and that the minors system will supply a pipeline of talent, then those two requirements would be covered. Beyond that it’s tough to know exactly what Machado will prioritize in a destination.

If he is looking to maximize his image and grow his “brand” then of course San Diego would not be the place to do that. So you don’t sell him on that. You sell him on being able to be next big San Diego sports icon. You sell him on being able to lead a young, talented, World Series ready team for the next decade. You sell him on the fact that at the end of the day he gets to go home to La Jolla, or Rancho Bernardo, or Coronado, and live one of the most stress free lives a superstar athlete could ask for.

You see, when I told the boss man that I had this topic in mind he told me I better write it as a satire.
But I want to believe folks, I want to believe.

Anyways, laughs are cheap. I’m going for gasps.