The Padres regular season debut is less than 24 hours away so its time to unleash the outlook for this season. We have been patiently waiting for months, dealing with the increasingly boorish offseason in a city with our lonely major sports team. We started crawling through the Winter Meetings and progressed to a brisk walk when P's and C's reported in late February. We hurdled Spring Training landing on our feet flawlessly to begin the sprint towards baseball fan's Christmas: Opening Day.
The 25-Man Roster is nearly set and tomorrow the Padres will take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. A quote from AJ Cassavell's piece in the link above:
It seems possible the club will open the year with 14 position players and 11 pitchers, carrying only four starters. In that instance, Ross could begin the season in the Minors before a scheduled callup on April 6 in Houston -- the first day a fifth starter would be needed...In that scenario, the Padres would carry both Carlos Asuaje and Cory Spangenberg at second base. It's possible one of them is sent to Triple-A if Ross is part of the Opening Day roster.
Roster (w/ Ross in minors)
C (3): Austin Hedges, A.J. Ellis, Raffy Lopez
1B (1): Eric Hosmer
2B (2): Carlos Asuaje, Cory Spangenberg
3B (2): Chase Headley, Christian Villanueva
SS (1): Freddy Galvis
OF (5): Wil Myers, Jose Pirela, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Matt Szczur
Rotation (4): Clayton Richard, Robbie Erlin, Luis Perdomo, Bryan Mitchell
Bullpen (7): Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Kazuhisa Makita, Kyle McGrath, Jordan Lyles, Adam Cimber
DL (7) : Dinelson Lamet, Franchy Cordero, Alex Dickerson, Colin Rea, Matt Strahm, Allen Cordoba, Carter Capps
Roster Takeaway
Notably Phil Maton and Buddy Baumann are gone while McGrath and Lyles are sticking around in the bullpen. Have to think the Phil and Buddy duo will be up at some point soon, and definitely the first replacement(s) if someone in the pen gets hurt. Erlin is most likely to start game 2 on Friday, and with the day off on Sunday the roster above makes sense in order to have an extra bat until next week.
Keeping three catchers is always a head scratcher at minimum. AJ Ellis must have some serious charisma if they decided to keep him and Raffy around. It will be interesting to see who sticks around between Spangy and Asuaje when Ross comes up since Pirela will get reps at 2B while platooning with Renfroe in left. Unless Preller throws a curve and just moves on from Ellis/Lopez/Szczur. I would like to see Asuaje staying but Spang's versatility might keep him put. This first week of the season is setting up as an audition.
I am happy to see Villanueva listed and hope he stays around. If he keeps smoking the ball when he gets the opportunity like he did at the end of last season, hopefully that would push Preller harder to get rid of Headley.
Speaking of hope, by the grace of the baseball gods Lamet won't be out too long. It was a huge bummer to see him go down so close to the season, with elbow problems no less. He was the guy (pitcher at least) I was most excited to see this year, and probably a lot of yours too. Shockingly enough we don't know the extent of the damage because MRI's are hard to come by in SD for a young pitcher. In other show stopping injury notes: Dickerson and Capps hurt...weird.
Cold, Hot, and Medium Rare Takes for Season
Each category will have 3 sub categories just for shits and gigs:
1. Probable - what that means
2. a. Nice/Okay/Hurt - what those mean
3. a. F*** Yes - would be a reason to curse positively in excitement
3. b. World Isn't Fair - shrug
1st Young/Prospect Call Up
Probable: Franchy Cordero
Wouldn't shock me if Franchy started thrashing in El Paso when he's off the DL and forces Andy Green's hand in bringing him up after a couple months +/- 2 weeks. Any impactful injury in the OF would also accelerate his rise back to the show.
Nice: Joey Lucchesi
The young exciting lefty was close to making the opening 25, but with no rush to bring him up the Pads stuck with Erlin and Ross. If he were the first call up it would create a buzz on Padres Twitter to say the least.
F*** Yes: Luis Urias
Both Spangy and Asuaje get hurt or just flat out suck like a long line at Jack in the Box's drive thru at 1am. AJ wakes up from a 10 min power nap and says screw it while taking out his iPhone to drag Urias to the 25 Man Roster App that GMs are now using. The wait was cut short and he becomes the NL ROY.
Next Injury
Probable: Tyson Ross
Pains me to say it but the odds gotta be on him. I hope this doesn't happen so end of segment.
Hurt: Eric Hosmer
It would really suck if Hosmer got hurt at any point in the season let alone the beginning. If he plays 140+ games I'd be satisfied and that would provide a good enough sample size in what we could/should expect from him going forward.
World Isn't Fair: Manny Margot
IMHO I think we could have a sneaky potential two way superstar in Manny. Yo se muy excited to see how he performs this season, and I would be beyond upset if he goes down at all.
Traded Away
Okay/Hurt: Hunter Renfroe
I could certainly understand it, but it would still hurt. He probably has more value than Pirela in a trade and you have to think one of those guys has to go eventually. Pirela has earned the right to be the mostly starting LF until Hunter can hit right handed pitching. Having said that, I am really pulling for RenBro.
World Isn't Fair: Brad Hand
I like the thought of Brad Hand being the shut down closer we will need in the next few years when we can actually compete. I don't want him going anywhere.
No further explanation required.
30 HR Guys
Probable: Wil MyersHe did it last year while not really hitting that well overall. I wouldn't be shocked and am sort of expecting Myers to have his best season. He self admittedly doesn't have to be the guy anymore and that's the way he likes it. So just go play Wil and hit 35+ with a big slash line.
Nice: Hunter Renfroe
If he hits 30 HR then that probably means he's on the team so that qualifies as nice in my book. Redeem yourself in front of the skipper, take a BB now and then and keep hitting bombs like you did in El Paso the other night.
F*** Yes: Eric Hosmer
No one would see this coming and all of these national media skanks would have to sit on their thumbs. Look at that sexy MF.
All Star
Probable: Brad HandLets face it, a San Diego Padre is not going to win a fan vote at any starting position, so Hand makes the most sense since he made the team in this fashion last year.
Nice: Myers/Hosmer
Means they are playing well and have been noticed nationally, that would be nice.
F*** Yes: Manuel Margot
On the way to his superstar status, Manny takes the NL by storm in the first half of the season. Everyone east of Vegas says who the f*ck is this guy who's hitting .290 with 15 HRs and 25 SB for the Padres.
Most Improved
Nice: Luis Perdomo
Wouldn't that just be terrific if Luis performed so well that a significant jump in his value occurred while simultaneously locking him down a spot in the rotation for the next few years.
F*** Yes: Austin Hedges
Would be awesome to see Swoon take a healthy step in the right direction offensively. I think that would help put our minds at ease even though the town alarm hasn't started yet. I don't need him to hit .285 or anything but I'll take .250 with 20+ HRs all day. At this point getting a OBP above .300 would be an achievement.
Best Pitcher
Probable: Hand
Safest bet. If he sticks around *praying hands emoji*
Nice: Perdomo
F*** Yes: Dinelson Lamet
That means that little injury back in March was nothing and when he got off of that short DL stint he went HAM on the NL West and took the steps we have been envisioning him to take for the last 6 months.
Best Hitter
Probable: MyersNational Breakout Szn bruh.
Nice: Hosmer
"That's what they paid him for right?!?!?!?" - Dave Palet probably.
F*** Yes: Fernando Tatis Jr.
His September call up stats were so good he took the crown and received the Padres team MVP award. La Jolla kids get Tatis Jerseys and Chula Vista kids get Tatis back tattoos.
Season Finish
Probable: 71-91They'll find a way to match last season's record and stay in the middle of the draft because Padres.
Nice: 81-81
I have been suffering from Friar Optimism Disorder (FOD) for nearly two decades. It forces me to believe things like the Hosmer signing sparks the whole lineup and Myers, Margot, and even Renfroe are spectacular all season long AND the pitching staff isn't a shit show. Now it's time for the young pitching prospects to catch up to the lineup and Baby, we got a stew going.
F*** Yes: 59-103
That has to be the #1 draft pick right? Would certainly make up for last season.
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