Pitchers and catchers are reporting tomorrow to Peoria. Time to take a look at the competition for the starting rotation, since it seems like no one new will be entering the discussion between now and opening day. I am aware of the Chris Archer rumor. While that dude is an absolute ace with great energy that would instantly make him a fan favorite; I'd hate to give up a huge haul for him. From Tim Ryder at Friars On Base:
According to reports, the Minnesota Twins had an offer on the table of Max Kepler, two high-end prospects, and another mid-level prospect, and the Rays still said no.
Hopefully, taking on the contract of Denard Span ($11 million in 2018, $12 million in 2019) and giving up a handful of the top-tier prospects Padres GM A.J. Preller has been stockpiling would get the deal done.No thanks. I don't want another over age - overpaid OF, and I don't want to give away top-tier prospects. I will say that Archer is very affordable until he becomes a UFA in 2022. But if we are giving up two top 10 prospects and others. F*ck that.
Ten pitchers will be competing for five spots:
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Clayton
Richard
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Brian
Mitchell
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Dinelson
Lamet
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Luis
Perdomo
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Robbie
Erlin
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Tyson
Ross
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Colin
Rea
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Jordan
Lyles
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Chris
Young
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Matt
Strahm
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LHP
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RHP
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RHP
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RHP
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LHP
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RHP
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RHP
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RHP
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RHP
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LHP
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Age
34
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26
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25
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24
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27
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30
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27
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27
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38
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26
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Andy Green basically laid this out in his chat with Kevin Acee a couple days ago:
The way we look at it, Clayton Richard and Bryan Mitchell are the two guys coming in with a spot locked down. Lamet and Perdomo have a leg up on the other guys.Makes sense. Richard is the ultimate innings eater and clubhouse captain, while Mitchell came over this off-season from the Yanks with everyone's favorite 3B. You're going to have to see what you have in Mitchell, someone who apparently Preller has been wanting for awhile. Here's AJ's quote from AJ Cassavell back on Dec 12th:
He's a guy that our scouting group had talked about acquiring the last three years," Preller said. "It's really good stuff. It's big fastball velocity, and he's got a really good breaking pitch in there, too, a power curve. [He's] a guy, 26 years old, four years of control -- we compared that to the free-agent market, and he was probably more intriguing in terms of the upside and how he fit.
Dinelson Lamet is a Lock in My Book
I really enjoy watching this kid pitch, ever since his 1st start last year vs the Mets when he K'd 8 batters over 5 IP earning the Win. His basic stat line doesn't jump out at you from his rookie campaign. Over 21 starts he went 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA and a WHIP of 1.242. He had 139 Ks vs 54 BBs in 114.1 IP.
I am looking forward to him making a jump in his sophomore season, pitching more innings and lowering his walk rate. He's got the stuff to strike batters out, with a 10.94 K/9 rate that would rank in the top 10 in all of baseball last season if he had more IPs.
Luis Perdomo is probably starter #4
This guy has done pretty damn well for being a rule 5 guy a couple seasons ago. Look at some progress from season 1 to season 2:
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2016
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2017
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ERA
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5.71
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4.67
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IP
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146.2
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163.2
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ERA +
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70
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88
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It wasn't all beers and brats for Luis, his BB/9 rose from 2.8 to 3.6 so obviously he needs to get a hold on his control.
I know a weak argument for the Freddy Galvis move was his amazing glove at SS that would help out the pitching staff. But that actually makes a lot of sense in Perdomo's case, who ranked 2nd in all of baseball in ground ball percentage last season.
With so many young prospects on the move, this could quite possibly be a make it or break it season for Perdomo in San Diego. I am hoping he rises to the occasion, which could make him a valuable trade chip in a push for 2019/2020 since he's not a UFA until 2022.
Candidates for the 5th Spot
From Cassavell again:
That would leave six arms for one spot (with one or two probably better suited for the bullpen). Tyson Ross, Chris Young and Jordan Lyles will need to make a serious impression this spring to earn a rotation spot. Meanwhile, Colin Rea, Matt Strahm and Erlin are poised to return from injury. We'll give Erlin, the most experienced of the three, a very slight edge.
Maybe it is just me, but I am over the Robbie Erlin experiment. I'd love for him to turn it around and prove me wrong, and be the guy we thought he could be back when the Padres acquired him in a trade with the Rangers back in 2011. He just doesn't appear to be a long term fit, but if he earns the spot this spring then so be it. He is a 2nd LHP option behind Richard if the team looks for balance.
I'd love to see Colin Rea make a comeback. I can remember when he was looking like the future before going down with elbow issues early in his Padres career. If he shows some promise in spring training I think he deserves serious consideration.
I'm crossing Chris Young off the list. A 2007 Padres All Star, also started in the lone postseason victory for the Pads in the last two decades back in 2006. It's nice to see him back with the team, but nah. Did you just read those dates?
Matt Strahm and Jordan Lyles are two players who could end up in the bulllpen if they can't crack the rotation. Strahm pitched in 45 games for the Royals the last two season, but only started in three of those games, and only reach 5 IP in one of those starts. In the minors he had a 10.9 K/9 rate in over 250 IP, as well as a 3.75 K-BB ratio. Lyles is a mostly National League journeyman bouncing from the Astros to Rockies from 2011-2017 before he signed as a FA with the Pads in August. He has a lot of experience which bodes well in his favor, pitching in 182 games and started in 107 of them. His best season came back in 2014, where he went 7-4 for Colorado in 126.2 IP with a ERA+ of 98.
To be blunt, I am incredibly biased towards Tyson Ross. I was so pumped when Preller brought him back to San Diego in December. Our former All Star Ace was so special, it was a freaking shame how his first go around with the Pads ended. If Darren Balsley can get him back to even a shadow of his old form this spring it would be an amazing story for all of us Padres fans.
What about a six man rotation?
I am all about it. Especially if it looks like Richard-Mitchell-Lamet-Perdomo- (and two of) Strahm/Ross/Rea/Erlin.
Bottom line it's great that there are this many options. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and the competition this spring brings out the best in all of these guys.
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